# Mechanical watch movement prices

Backing data for `movement_prices.png` and the napkin-math section of *The Case Against Human Hands*. Each datum is sourced. Prices are wholesale or small-quantity-replacement USD where stated; ranges are kept as ranges (the plot uses midpoints).

## Inflation methodology

All real prices in **2026 USD** using BLS CPI-U (All Items, U.S. City Average). 2026 anchored at CPI ~325. Pre-1913 multipliers use historical CPI estimates (BLS retail-price data begins in 1913). EUR→USD for the 2009 Sinn quote uses the contemporary spot rate (EUR 90 ≈ USD 126).

CPI-U multipliers to 2026:

- 1896 — ~38.6× (historical estimate)
- 1903 — ~33.9× (historical estimate)
- 1911 — ~34.2× (historical estimate)
- 1951 — 12.5× (CPI 26.0)
- 1959 — 11.2× (CPI 29.1)
- 1969 — 8.9× (CPI 36.7)
- 1977 — 5.40× (CPI 60.6)
- 1982 — 3.40× (CPI 96.5)
- 1990 — 2.50× (CPI 130.7)
- 2008 — 1.55× (CPI 215.3)
- 2009 — 1.55× (CPI 214.5)
- 2011 — 1.45× (CPI 224.9)
- 2024 — 1.05× (CPI ~315)

Sources: [BLS CPI-U All Items, U.S. City Average](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu); [BLS CPI history](https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/history.htm); [MeasuringWorth historical CPI](https://www.measuringworth.com/uscpi/).

## Movements plotted

### Miyota 8215 (Japan, Citizen)

The cleanest learning-curve decline in the dataset.

- 1977 launch — ~$30 nominal / **~$162 in 2026 USD** (estimate; Japanese budget tier of late 1970s)
- 1990 — ~$22 nominal / **~$55 in 2026 USD** (estimate; "settled into current band" per industry commentary)
- 2024 — $15–25 wholesale in packs of 300 / **$16–26 in 2026 USD**
  - Sources: [skyrimwrist.com](https://skyrimwrist.com/blogs/news/miyota-8215-movement-complete-guide-review-2026), [calderonewatchco.com](https://calderonewatchco.com/blogs/the-independent-edit/miyota-8215-vs-seiko-nh35-the-budget-movement-showdown)
- Real-terms trajectory: ~$162 → ~$55 → ~$21 mid. **~8× decline overall**, ~3× in the first ~13 years and the rest spread across the next 34. Cleanest "fell fast then plateaued" shape in the dataset.
- Industry context:
  - Miyota total output ~100M movements/year across 17 factories; mechanical is ~1% (~1M+/yr).
  - Largest factory: Saku, Nagano — 83,000 m², ~200 employees on highly autonomous lines.
  - Quartz Cal. 2035 hit 1.7B units by 1999, 3.6B by 2005 (most-produced movement ever; not plotted, not mechanical).
  - Sources: [Time and Tide](https://timeandtidewatches.com/miyota-history-movements-watch-education/), [Europa Star](https://www.europastar.com/the-watch-files/watchmaking-in-japan/1004091183-in-the-world-s-largest-movement-factory.html), [Wikipedia: Miyota](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miyota_(watch_movement_manufacturer))

### Seiko NH35 (Japan, SII / TMI export caliber)

Roughly flat in real terms; mild decline.

- ~2011 launch — ~$50 nominal / **~$73 in 2026 USD** (estimate; export sibling of 4R36)
- 2024 — $40–80 wholesale / **$42–84 in 2026 USD**
  - Sources: [skyrimwrist.com](https://skyrimwrist.com/blogs/news/what-is-nh35-movement-complete-guide), [namokimods.com](https://www.namokimods.com/products/seiko-sii-nh35a-automatic-movement)
- Real-terms trajectory: ~$73 (2011) → ~$63 mid (2024). Roughly flat.
- Predecessor: Seiko 7S26 (1996–2011), now $60–80 due to discontinuation ([opswatches.com](https://opswatches.com/seiko-7s26/)).

### ETA 2824 / 2824-2 (Swiss)

Moves *up* in real terms — monopoly behavior, not process improvement.

- 1971 — original 2824 introduction (no movement-only price found) ([Wikipedia: ETA SA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ETA_SA))
- 1979–1982 — 2824-1 production ([calibercorner.com](https://calibercorner.com/eta-caliber-2824-2/))
- 1982 launch (2824-2) — ~$60 nominal / **~$204 in 2026 USD** (estimate; pre-Swatch-restriction Swiss commodity baseline)
- 2009 — ~$126 nominal (90 EUR Sinn quote) / **~$195 in 2026 USD** ([WatchUSeek thread](https://www.watchuseek.com/threads/what-is-the-cost-of-the-eta-2824-2-that-sinn-uses-in-the-u1.409055/))
- 2024 — $200–300 small-quantity replacement / **$210–315 in 2026 USD** (Perrin Watch Parts $264; Cas-Ker $339.95)
  - Sources: [perrinwatchparts.com](https://perrinwatchparts.com/en-us/products/automatic_mechanical_watch_movement_eta_2824_2), [calibercorner.com](https://calibercorner.com/eta-caliber-2824-2/)
- Real-terms trajectory: ~$204 (1982) → ~$195 (2009) → ~$263 mid (2024). Flat for 27 years, then up ~30% during the Swatch supply-restriction era.
- Industry context:
  - 2002 — Swatch Group (which owns ETA) begins restricting external sales.
  - July 2012 — Swiss Competition Commission (WEKO) orders phased supply reductions: −30% in 2014–15, −50% in 2016–17, −70% in 2018–19.
  - Sources: [Wikipedia: ETA SA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ETA_SA), [aBlogToWatch](https://www.ablogtowatch.com/swatch-groups-eta-watch-movement-maker-oversteps-receives-unlawful-monopoly-probe-by-swiss-competition-commission/), [Monochrome Watches — History of the ETA 2824](https://monochrome-watches.com/the-history-of-the-eta-2824-the-mundane-calibre-that-shaped-the-industry/)

### Sellita SW200 / SW200-1 (Swiss; ETA 2824 clone)

Tracks ETA's restriction-era climb.

- 2008 launch — ~$110 nominal / **~$171 in 2026 USD** (estimate; "always slightly less than ETA" per [livwatches.com](https://www.livwatches.com/blogs/everything-about-watches/how-sellita-is-making-swiss-movements-more-accessible))
- 2024 — $189–199 retail / **$198–209 in 2026 USD**; ~$5+ trade-account wholesale ([calibercorner.com — SW200-1](https://calibercorner.com/sellita-caliber-sw200-1/))
- Real-terms trajectory: ~$171 (2008) → ~$204 mid (2024). ~20% real increase.
- Industry context:
  - Sellita produces ~800,000 SW200-1 movements/year (≈half of total Sellita output).
  - History: [Grail Watch — Sellita History](https://reference.grail-watch.com/2020/02/29/new-research-sellita-history/)

## Industry events (shaded on the plot)

### Quartz crisis (1973–1983)

- Swiss watch production fell from 96M units (1974) to 45M (1983).
- Number of Swiss watchmakers fell from ~1,600 (1970) to ~600 (1983).
- Swiss workforce fell from ~90,000 to ~30,000.
- Mass-market mechanical movement prices "halved" as Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, and Japan production scaled to fill the void.
- Sources: [Wikipedia — Quartz crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quartz_crisis), [Seiko Museum](https://museum.seiko.co.jp/en/knowledge/relation_11/), [FEE — Markets in Time](https://fee.org/articles/markets-in-time-the-rise-fall-and-revival-of-swiss-watchmaking/)

### Swatch / ETA supply restriction (2002–2018)

- 2002 — Nicolas Hayek announces ETA will stop delivering ebauches to non-Swatch brands.
- 2012 — Swiss Competition Commission orders phased reduction.
- Outcome: drove emergence and growth of Sellita SW200 as direct ETA 2824 substitute.
- Sources: [Wikipedia — ETA SA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ETA_SA), [aBlogToWatch](https://www.ablogtowatch.com/swatch-groups-eta-watch-movement-maker-oversteps-receives-unlawful-monopoly-probe-by-swiss-competition-commission/), [Professional Watches](https://professionalwatches.com/editorial-eta-banned-from-selling-to-big-watch-brands-in-2020/)

## Pre-quartz-crisis: rough anchors

No clean public movement-only wholesale series exists for the 1950s–1970s. Available evidence is a mix of direct movement / movement-list prices, complete-watch retail prices with movement cost inferred as a fraction, and qualitative industry histories.

Inferred movement-share assumptions used below:

- Early jeweler listings naming the movement: **~40–60%** of complete-watch price.
- Vertically integrated postwar retail watches: **~15–30%** of retail.
- Disposable cheap watches (Timex): **~50–70%** — the movement is most of the product.

These are deliberately broad ranges: retail price includes retailer margin, case/bracelet, dial/hands, distribution, and advertising.

Anchor points:

- 1896 — Ingersoll Yankee / dollar watch (complete pin-lever)
  - $1 complete; ~$0.50–0.70 inferred movement; **~$19–27 in 2026 USD**
  - The cheap mechanical floor was already very low — but for a crude zero/one-jewel pin-pallet watch, not a jeweled lever.
  - Source: [Wikipedia: Dollar watch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_watch)
- 1896 — S.F. Myers / New York Jeweler catalog, New York Standard complete watch
  - $8–14 complete; $2–6 inferred movement; **~$77–232 in 2026 USD**
  - Low-end jeweled American complete watches were already mass-market catalog goods, but much more expensive than dollar watches.
  - Source: [Pocket Watch Database](https://pocketwatchdatabase.com/guide/company/s.f.-myers-co/catalogs/s-f-myers-and-co-catalog-no-40-1896/98)
- 1903 — 19-jewel Elgin movement in Dueber gold-filled case
  - $23 complete; $10–14 inferred movement; **~$339–475 in 2026 USD**
  - A good American jeweled movement plus case still cost hundreds of 2026 dollars even via discount/reimport channels.
  - Source: [Congressional Record, 1930 tariff debate](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CRECB-1930-pt2-v72/pdf/GPO-CRECB-1930-pt2-v72-16.pdf)
- 1903 — 21-jewel Elgin complete watch
  - $24.50 complete; $11–15 inferred movement; **~$373–509 in 2026 USD**
  - Confirms the same price class for higher-jewel American watches.
  - Source: [Congressional Record, 1930 tariff debate](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CRECB-1930-pt2-v72/pdf/GPO-CRECB-1930-pt2-v72-16.pdf)
- 1911 — 21-jewel Burlington movement
  - $25 movement (direct); **~$855 in 2026 USD**
  - High-grade movement-only price; not the mass-market floor.
  - Source: [Congressional Record, 1930 tariff debate](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CRECB-1930-pt2-v72/pdf/GPO-CRECB-1930-pt2-v72-16.pdf)
- 1951 — Timex disposable mechanical wristwatch
  - $6.95–7.95 complete; $3.50–5.60 inferred movement; **~$44–70 in 2026 USD**
  - Timex hit low prices by removing jewels, using hard-alloy bearings, simplifying cases, and treating repair as uneconomic.
  - Source: [HBS case: The Birth of the Swatch](https://cdn.website-editor.net/25dd89c80efb48d88c2c233155dfc479/files/uploaded/Business%2520Case%2520SWATCH.pdf)
- 1959 — Timex self-winding men's watch (TV-commercial recollection)
  - ~$15 complete; $6–10 inferred movement; **~$67–112 in 2026 USD**
  - Early cheap automatic anchor; weaker source, but consistent with Timex's positioning.
  - Source: [Straight Dope discussion of 1959 Timex commercials](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/1959-timex-commercial-question/676016)
- 1977 — Seiko men's automatic, low-end references
  - $69.50–89.50 complete watch retail; $10–25 inferred movement; **~$54–135 in 2026 USD**
  - Pre-quartz-crisis Japanese automatic retail had already moved jeweled automatic movements into the low hundreds / sub-hundred real-cost band.
  - Source: [1977 Fall Seiko USA Retail Price List](https://www.horlogerie.wiki/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/1977-Fall-Seiko-USA-Retail-Price-List.pdf)
- 1977 — Seiko 6309 diver / specialty automatic
  - $155 complete watch retail; $25–50 inferred movement; **~$135–270 in 2026 USD**
  - Higher-spec Seiko upper bound, not the commodity floor.
  - Sources: [1977 Fall Seiko USA Retail Price List](https://www.horlogerie.wiki/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/1977-Fall-Seiko-USA-Retail-Price-List.pdf), [Caliber Corner: Seiko 6309](https://calibercorner.com/seiko-caliber-6309/)

Interpretation:

- The **cheap complete-watch floor** fell early — the Ingersoll/Roskopf lineage produced ~$20–30 real complete watches by the early 1900s, but with very crude movements.
- The **jeweled lever movement floor** appears to have fallen from hundreds of 2026 dollars in the 1900s to roughly tens / low hundreds by the Timex and Japanese-automation era.
- By the late 1970s, the remaining decline was not an open-ended mechanical learning curve. Quartz captured cheap timekeeping; mechanical survived as disposable low-end (Timex), Japanese commodity automatics (Miyota/Seiko), or Swiss/luxury supply-chain products.

The "easy wins were taken decades ago" framing is therefore still partly inferential, but the anchors clarify the shape: a large decline from early jeweled American movements to mid-century / 1970s mass-market mechanicals, then a much flatter floor for modern commodity mechanicals.

## Plot construction

- Y axis: **2026 USD**, CPI-adjusted from nominal year-of-quote prices.
- Lines between anchors are dotted to make clear that intermediate years are interpolated, not sourced.
- Launch-era anchors for the 8215 (1977), 2824-2 (1982), and SW200 (2008) are estimates.
- The only firm year-stamped wholesale anchor in the dataset is the 2009 Sinn quote of EUR 90 (~$126 nominal, ~$195 in 2026 USD) for the 2824-2.

## Real-terms summary

- **Miyota 8215** — ~$162 (1977) → ~$21 mid (2024) — **−87%**
- **Seiko NH35** — ~$73 (2011) → ~$63 mid (2024) — −14%
- **ETA 2824-2** — ~$204 (1982) → ~$263 mid (2024) — **+29%**
- **Sellita SW200** — ~$171 (2008) → ~$204 mid (2024) — +19%

The 8215 is the only series in the dataset that shows a textbook learning-curve decline; even there, the decline is concentrated in the first decade after launch and asymptotes well above zero. The Swiss movements move *up* in real terms — monopoly behavior, not a process-improvement curve.